China in future Global Order

Recent surge and development of China has developed a debate centered around rise of East and Pacific Ocean . Leading the world world in 21st century and already 21st Century is being called century of China. In history rise of a new power in world affair is usually associated with conflict and violence. This fear adopts increased proportions when we see it that this time the world powers are riding over power of globalization and information technology instead of mere human resources!China asserts that its rise is peaceful rise and its development is for peace and stability 0of world. As the economic and military power of China rises, USA considers it her major future rival and a country which can challenge and take over USA; there are studies that at 5 times less productivity as to USA in 2020 China can take over USA due to her population.Henry Kissinger visited China in 2007 and first time raised point of rivalry due to change in balance of power. But many experts also assert that due to nuclear weapons old traditional methods of military superiority and its active use are not means to affect change. This reality has been changed by the complex, multilateral and liberal free market economy international order of world. This is expressed by United Nations, Breton Woods Financial Institutions, world Trade Organization and relentless pace and currency of Globalization and information technology revolution.These institutions and free market economy are spearheaded by USA and European values and its historical experiences. Thus in recent Foreign Affairs Magazine there is special portion dedicated to China and in this question of future of Chinese superiority over USA in long term is asserted but it is considered that China will not be able to replace the present international order in its favor drastically and radically. As China is itself beneficiary of this International Order, examples being its economic turnaround si all due to Globalization and joining the international, multilateral systems and also China itself accepts the fact of increase in its prestige after joining WTO.USA should keep on China engaged, integrated and curtailed within the present multilateral international liberal market economy order, and this will favor and support USA. G.John Ikenberry in his article “The Rise of China and the future of the West… Can the Liberal System Survive?” in latest issue of Foreign Affairs Magazine January/February 2008 concludes that “The task now is to make so expensive and so institutionalized that China has no choice but to become a full-fledged member of it. The United States cannot thwart China’s rise, but it can help ensure that China’s power si exercised within the rules and institutions that the United States and its partners have crafted over the last century, rules and institutions that can protect the interests of all states in the more crowded world of the future. The United States’ global position may be weakening, but the international system the United States leads can remain the dominant order of the twenty –first century.”This is the crux of realist school of thought based upon idealistic visions of world order.If behavior of China is seen in last decade then it becomes clear that China is rapidly becoming part of this global international liberal system. Its examples are china’s active support to resolve North Korea Crisis under the ambit of six -party talks, active role in UN peace keeping operations. Increased participation in Security Council related matters in UN( Iraq Issue, Iran Nuclear Issue, Darfur Issue , environmental Issue are case in point)and recently her active and increased participation in war against Global Terrorism. These all are indicators of active involvement and participation of China in liberal system but its limitations are also visible where China’s national interests clash for example Taiwan issue ( recent Taiwanese interest in independence through UN) Tibet and her relationships with states not practicing democracy and also Human Right issues. This process of engagement and integration of China in world order is gradually moving and as per assertions of Chinese they have no plan and desire to counter the international system as this will prove counterproductive to their interests.China’s entry into global arena is under the framework of existing legal .multilateral, consensual and liberal systems of institutions developed by Western powers in 20th century and as main factors of Chinese development are exports and FDI, this anchors China to present system and binds her future with stability of the present system based on International Law which seems to be contrary to present policy of USA’s unilateral pursuance in world affairs since last 8 years. In future global stability and peace hinges upon peaceful integration of China in world liberal systems, and USA’s resolve to strengthen the present institutions. But this will depend upon the changes in US Presidency this year as it will change course of policies of USA administration towards international liberal system and will also affect the USA –China relations ranging from trade friction to military issues.If China’s position is seen in this backdrop of international liberal system then except China’s internal touchy issues China has managed to adjust and adopt its policies to ethos of liberal system in its own way based upon active diplomacy and flexibility and resolve to search middle path… this has been shown in Six Party talks, Darfur Issue, Iran Nuclear Issue and terrorism issues. China has been very active in environmental regime to develop national policy in year 2006 to counter the bad press and environmental impact at home at least at policy level. Although ground realities are not as promising as they should be, but China’s resolve to adjust its legal structure and framework has been impressive. So at policy level in short and middle term China will not challenge its course of integration into world liberal system , but its response to USA security threat after war against Terrorism is finished will not be of accommodation and restraint due to increased economic power and its domestic nationalism and insistence on Chinese characteristics. These tenors of Chinese thinking are visible in development of regional alliances and active diplomacy in Africa , Latin America and Asia. China’s role and increasing sophisticated development of SCO and ASEAN mechanism is an indication in this regard. Recent cyber attacks in year 2007 originating from mainland China on computer systems of Europe and USA are indication of increasing muscle of China.China’s place in international liberal system will be determined by various multiple factors of USA behavior and its attitude and stress on War Against Terrorism and policy of new administration on economic issues with China. China will also be affected by rise of India at global scene and China is poised already to contain the role of India in region. .This is shown by China’s active role in regional trade, economic, military and defense relations with its neighbors like Pakistan. Myanmar, Vietnam, Koreas, Russia, other South East countries and her increased role in Central Asia. This historical rivalry with India can also color China’s perceptions of USA as Chinese already think that USA is not happy with their rise. This can play a major underlying role in future options for China in global affairs.China’s place in liberal system will not be governed by response of USA alone it will also be shaped up by its own choices in response to its increasing power and clout gathered by her not due to any historical legacy or cultural extension but mainly due to her rising economic power coupled with military power which at least in next 50 years will not be more advance than USA and European technology at least at theoretical and research level.Success of liberal system will depend on USA‘s resolve to protect 20th century institutions and shun its unilateral behavior and successful integration of China in this reinvigorated and revitalized systems. China has not come up with any alternative right now , rather she is pursuing to be active part of global institutions like WTO, UN, G-8, IMF, World Bank and other rising regional organizations like SCO, ADB etc. China will certainly change the practical expression of liberal system, but she will not be re writing the bases of those institutions, it will go for first claiming her rightful place in the system and then gradually it will integrate in the international system as an active player due to her size but it will not embark on a drastic effort to re- draw the maps or structures of institutions… it will aim for reform not for revolution. If it opts for revolution, then it will be a disaster of Chinese history of early 20th century repeated at global scale as now China will not shake itself… the dragon will shake the world! The sheer size of this Chinese revolution will be of utmost importance for its neighbors and they will be its immediate recipients as west will feel its indirect shocks especially in economic field. This course will be tumultuous due to internal cultural uniqueness and its inherent inability to excel in newer and innovative ideas at daily life and spiritual and philosophical level also. As the previous revolutions were initiated by Chinese but with foreign ideas of Democracy and Marxism and later adjusted to Chinese characteristics as present market system in china is called Socialist market with Chinese characteristics. This adherence restricts the scope of adoption of idea and it has inherent germs of imperialistic tendencies if taken to its extreme as it happened in case of Japan. In middle term behavior of China towards its place in world system will concern its neighbors in far reaching ways its land neighbors and sea neighbors will be affected in different ways. Regional and global affairs of China will be affected with China’s energy needs as this raw material has become of strategic importance for China and she has already understood its gravity as it is planning to open a new Ministry solely dealing with strategic and practical aspects of energy in its economic and strategic development. This will strategically place China at odds with rising environmental concerns at global level despite China’s readiness to adopt more efficient and sustainable models of energy resources.Liberal system of world will also affect China’s internal political system as increased integration of Chinese system with global liberal institutions running on rule of law and democratic aspiration will impact China also. This impact will be crucial factor in determining the gradual integration of China in world society as till now China has kept its own rules and regulations especially in fields of human rights and political affairs. This is a contradiction as in economic and trade matters China has adjusted rather rapidly and surprisingly without any major demur at domestic front. This inherent contradiction will place pressures on role of China if she adapts to the increased active role in liberal system of world affairs