Buddha as a person will remain as an inspiration in its pure form. I agree that the political realities have taken over the spiritual messages of the Buddha.Budhha was an inspring person who in evoked the sense of balance for his followers. His Nirvana was discovery of a tormented spirit to search bliss.The relaity of present adherence is more of its followers than the teachings of Great Sage.
After 18th century the development of Buddhism has been in the monastries, and in Japan , China, and other countires of South east Asia it had been dormant.If you look at the present ideas on Buddhism in Japan they are being directly related to the issues of sutainable development, environment and other related soft issues . these are covertly political issues may be not at present but in future.in China hte 2006 's buddhist Forum heralds new changes in the behaviour of Buddhist thought to the modern political cum social relaities of Globalization.the political role of Buddhism in tibet is the msot political and it has direct bearing with the political ambitions and Lamaism of Tibet.This has its own unique contours, so after 18th century the Buddhist thought has;nt been single dimensional. it has multi dimensional facets.But as a political force it was not the purpose of Buddha's thought and his followers from Ashoka to present have modified it in line with for their own circumstances.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Women as Person!
Liberty? most complext idea beaten to its limits on altar of freedom of expression.
Conflict is not the only mode of evolution in human history.
Roles change and in Pakistani society, religion and modern ideas are the real issues which prohibit the practical just society.
First we should clarify what is the basic point from which we want to get liberated?
We are not men or women by choice!
accepting gender reality is certainly a step forward!
Conflict is not the only mode of evolution in human history.
Roles change and in Pakistani society, religion and modern ideas are the real issues which prohibit the practical just society.
First we should clarify what is the basic point from which we want to get liberated?
We are not men or women by choice!
accepting gender reality is certainly a step forward!
Islam is complete code of life, Islam has solution of all the issues. These are cliches, we need to dissect the issues in a specific way and why we always treat women as objects... why we fail to understand the Prophet peace be upon him ' s sayings and action of treating her as a PERSON. Why we equate decadent Hinduistic status of women in our so-called Eastern society to keep her subjugated?
Have we noted that most common abuses hurled while fighting are aimed at women of house? Why this is so?
Why all jahil mullahs are worried about issues of women , when she talks for her right. They all forget the communal differences when questions of women's rights as a person come.
They vindicate forced marriages, denial of property to women , her inferiority and subjugation under name of Islam.
They distort meaning of Holy Quran to hold women under burden of traditions
Have we noted that most common abuses hurled while fighting are aimed at women of house? Why this is so?
Why all jahil mullahs are worried about issues of women , when she talks for her right. They all forget the communal differences when questions of women's rights as a person come.
They vindicate forced marriages, denial of property to women , her inferiority and subjugation under name of Islam.
They distort meaning of Holy Quran to hold women under burden of traditions
our ideals flow from our own history, not to be imitated but to be learned in spirit and action. Why we are not able to follow free spirit of Hazrat Ayesha RA, why we fail to take inspiration from her knowledge of legal and deep understanding of Islamic law? Why we look towards West always to get our Liberation Movements.
How far we can impose our own image of a submissive, docile, confused and afraid image of women in our imaginary and practical world?
How far we can impose our own image of a submissive, docile, confused and afraid image of women in our imaginary and practical world?
Religious interpretation and name of Islam is used as excuse to keep justice denied to women of our society. They are first an Insan, afterwards mother,sister, wife , beloved etc. First we have to accept her as PERSON... co discrimination on bases of gender, and no competition also. accept her as a free and independent person having her own ideas and self. In Quran there is no superiority or inferiority of men or women, but we have changed the meaning to suit our own whims and wishes.
Sleep
Sleep and dreams ? Why are they interwoven? Is sleep a name of temporary death? then why we love to die?
Sleep
Sleep and dreams ? Why are they interwoven? Is sleep a name of temporary death? then why we love to die?
On Liberty's Shades
Liberty? most complext idea beaten to its limits on altar of freedom of expression.Conflict is not the only mode of evolution in human history. Roles change and in Pakistani society, religion and modern ideas are the real issues which prohibit the practical just society.First we should clarify what is the basic point from which we want to get liberated?We are not men or women by choice!accepting gender reality is certainly a step forward
Monday, October 20, 2008
Global Recession and China
Global Recession and China
Decoupling , the theory that Chinese economy is independent and is not dependant upon USA and EU market has been tested severely under the after math of the recent financial crisis in Global markets, especially financial and stock exchange markets. This shows that the world economy is truly global in scope practical implications. The impact of global crisis is explored in the context of financial, manufacturing and stock exchange of China.
"Decoupling holds that European and Asian economies, especially emerging ones, have broadened and deepened to the point that they no longer depend on the United States for growth, leaving them insulated from a severe slowdown there, even a fully fledged recession. Faith in the concept has generated strong outperformance for stocks outside the United States - until now." Reference International Herald Tribune
Financial investments abroad and Chinese losses
In China the impact of international financial crisis has been varied and it has not been open and clear due to lack of transparency and information gathering in China. In financial field China Investment Corp., the sovereign wealth fund that bought stakes in Morgan Stanley and Blackstone Group LP before their stocks plunged, may have as much as $5.4 billion frozen in a U.S. money-market account. Stable Investment Corp., an affiliate of Beijing-based CIC, was the largest shareholder in Reserve Primary Fund on Sept. 1, according to regulatory filings. Reserve Primary suspended withdrawals after becoming the first U.S. money- market fund in 14 years to leave investors with losses. Stable Investment had about $6 billion in additional U.S. money-market funds earlier this year. China, which has primarily held its $1.8 trillion in currency reserves in low-yielding U.S. government debt, set up CIC last year to put about $200 billion into assets with higher rates of return, such as stocks and corporate bonds. It invested $5 billion in Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. investment bank, and $3 billion in buyout firm Blackstone, manager of the largest leveraged buyout fund. Both New York-based companies have lost more than 70 percent of their market value since the purchases.
CIC devoted most of its money to domestic banks, and has about $35 billion remaining for global investments, according to McCormack at Z-Ben, which consults on China's money- management industry. The fund had placed $11 billion in U.S. money-market funds, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. It may be using the money funds to park cash until selecting outside money managers to help it invest, said Brad Setser, a fellow for geo-economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based think tank.``. It has taken them awhile to figure out what they want to invest in,'' Setser said. This shows the cautious policy adopted in aftermath of the financial crisis by Chinese authorities
Depending on its performance, CIC may be allocated as much as $1 trillion of China's foreign exchange reserves, according to Michael Martin, an Asian trade and finance analyst at the U.S. Congressional Research Service in Washington.
A Sept. 29 2008, SEC filing shows that Stable Investment held 11.1 percent of Reserve Primary's institutional shares at the beginning of the month. Based on the 48.9 billion institutional shares outstanding as of May 31, the most recent information available, Stable Investment's stake would have totaled about $5.4 billion.
Stable Investment has also invested roughly $5.9 billion in three other U.S. money market funds, according to documents filed earlier this year with the SEC. That includes $2.1 billion in the Invesco Aim Liquid Assets Portfolio; $2.3 billion in the JPMorgan Prime Money Market Fund; and $1.5 billion in Deutsche Asset Management's DWS Money Market Trust.
By Sept. 16 2008, the day after Lehman had filed for bankruptcy protection, investors had sought to withdraw $40 billion from the $62.5 billion Reserve Primary fund. Reserve Primary ended up releasing $10 billion at a rate of $1 a share. The last value published for the fund was 97 cents a share. Reserve Primary's loss triggered a widespread run in which investors withdrew $133 billion from U.S. money-market funds the following two days.
Reserve Primary is liquidating its assets and expects to make an initial distribution of $20 billion to remaining investors .The situation became clearer when China Investment Corp. (CIC), operator of the country's sovereign wealth fund, on 15 October 2008 said it had given notice to the Reserve Primary Fund, a U.S. money market fund, to withdraw all its investment before the latter's suspension announcement.
Bloomberg reported on 13 October 2008 ,that CIC may have as much as US$5.4 billion frozen as the Reserve Primary Fund suspended withdrawals last month. The Reserve Primary Fund suspended redemption last month because of losses on debt issued by bankrupted Lehman Brothers.A U.S. regulatory filing showed Stable Investment Corp. was the biggest institutional shareholder in the U.S. monetary market fund with a stake of potentially more than US$5 billion.
CIC confirmed its investment in the Primary Fund, but said it would not be subject to the possible 3 percent losses incurred by the Reserve Primary Fund. The fund announced investors who hadn't made a withdrawal before the redemption suspension may be subject to the 3 percent principal losses.
The Sovereign wealth fund, with capital of US$200 billion from the country's huge foreign exchange reserve, has attracted great attention at home as its two major investments in Blackstone and Morgan Stanley suffered losses during the ongoing financial crisis.
China Investment Corp., the government's sovereign wealth fund, may raise its stake in U.S. investment group Blackstone LP after the two agreed to boost the Chinese company's ownership limit.CIC had paid $3 billion for a stake in Blackstone's June 2007 initial public offering, but has seen the value of that investment sink in the bear market, to the consternation of many in China.
According to a regulatory filing, a revised agreement reached on 16 October 2008, between Blackstone and CIC unit Beijing Wonderful Investments Ltd. has raised the limit on the Chinese company's stake to 12.5 percent from 9.99 percent. The filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, posted on Blackstone's Web site, did not require regulatory approval.
There was no official comment from CIC on its plans for additional share purchases. At the time of Blackstone's IPO, its shares were valued at $31 apiece. On Thursday, they rose 1.7 percent to $9.36.The $200 billion investment arm of the Chinese government was set up to make profitable use of Beijing's foreign reserves, which totaled $1.9 trillion by the end of September 2008.
CIC's biggest investment to date was a $5 billion investment in Morgan Stanley, one of nine major banks now seeking relief from the deepening credit crisis through the U.S. government's $700 billion banking bailout. That purchase will give it a 9.9 percent stake in the investment bank.
The Chinese sovereign wealth fund also invested more than $100 million in Visa Inc.'s $19.1 billion IPO and has invested in a fund managed by J.C. Flowers, a U.S. private equity firm.
Stock , Commodities Market and Economic Crisis :
Shanghai Stock Exchange is the bench mark fro Main Land China and it has also been victim of the crisis in a drastic way. SSE has lost over 60 % of its value than its peak value a year ago and the slide has been steady and it has not been able to correct its balance after the global crisis. The SSE closed on 1833.26 points on 17 October 2008. This is at its historical lowest points.
China’s securities watchdog has warned listed state-owned enterprises against trading speculatively in the futures market as it acts to contain risks amid volatility in the global commodity markets. The SOEs can only use futures contracts as a hedging tool and must strictly control risks, China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in a Website statement . "China is highly reliant on imports of raw materials, but their prices are determined by overseas futures prices." However, the United States subprime crisis triggered volatility in futures prices and companies faced higher risks. So hedging in overseas futures market plays an important role in helping companies keep risks at bay and also helps them control costs while they aim to be profitable."The risks are manageable as long as we adhere to the principle of hedging," CSRC noted. Crude oil, copper, palm oil and rubber fell yesterday on concerns that sales will plummet.
The Chinese banking regulator on 16 October 2008 urged financial institutions to step up their supervision in face of world economic turmoil. The China Banking Regulatory Commission is requiring institutions in the banking industry to tighten up its credit management and avoid embezzlement of funds to the stock market. Control over property-related credit should be strengthened to encourage normal consumption, strike down on speculative activities and support the rational development of the real estate industry, said the commission. It also urged commercial banks to make better preparations for possible losses, asking them to increase provisions.
Manufacturing Sector … Economic Crisis and Relocation
The majority of China’s exports are destined to USA and EU market so the present crisis has played a dominant role in affecting the manufacturing base of the Chinese export dependant industries.
The toy market especially and new export orders have been affected at a broad spectrum of companies in China. Many big companies dealing in Christmas toys like Santa Claus' outsourcing operation is being affected by deepening US economic woes--US orders for Christmas products made by Chinese manufacturers have dropped off a cliff.
Roosevelt Gift Manufacturing Company in Xiamen, Fujian province is one of the three largest craft manufacturers in Xiamen, who mainly produces Christmas products for the America market."Nowadays, the business environment at home and abroad is poor. On the one hand, we have to face pressures from rising costs and Yuan appreciation; on the other hand, many orders have evaporated due to weaker US market demand," company’s representative Yuki said. She also said her company was searching for counter-measures. For instance, since later last year, the company had switched its target market to Europe out of concerns over its US partners' likeliness to breach contracts. But even the European market is unpredictable.
The firm even tried to squeeze costs by simplifying their products. "The US clients were more interested in lower prices, because expensive Christmas gifts may not be popular," Yuki said. She added the company had considered marketing domestically but was frustrated by thinner profit margins and complicated marketing channels.
Roosevelt is not an isolated company in this squeezing environment. Zhejiang province's Yiwu County, one of China's major Christmas product exporting bases, is also facing a colder market.
He Songping, president of Yiwu Zhong Sheng Crafts Company, which makes Christmas trees, told the EO that orders from the US have shrunk over 50%. Furthermore, since steel prices have jumped 30%, despite simplifications to product design his firm's products are still 15% more expensive.
The trend reaches beyond Christmas paraphernalia. Yiwu's export volume with the US registered negative growth for three consecutive months earlier this year. In April, local enterprises began to diversify their markets, and from May, Europe replaced the US to become Yiwu's largest exporting market.
A professional market consultant institute forecast a further decline in the trade against US and the US financial crisis would be bound to jeopardize its real economy. Under such condition, China had better diversify its exporting market like opening up new market in Middle-East, South Asia and Latin America areas.In America, consumers would often queue for shopping during the month-long golden shopping season that ran from Thanksgiving to Christmas Day. The season has traditionally contributed nearly half of total revenues and profits to US retailers. In the US, Christmas is not only a festival but also a huge economic cake.
However, Santa seemed likely to be less generous in year 2008. Owing to the bad economic situation last year, Christmas spending on the average child stood at around 200 dollar in the US. However, many families planned to halve that spending in year 2008 , because nobody wants to face a heap of credit card bills after the holidays. In addition, the unemployment rate in America is climbing and many people are living off of social welfare services."On September 23 2008, the US National Retail Federation forecasted weakness in the US retail business. The federation contributed the reason to the downturn in the real estate market, climbing unemployment and rising food prices.
When interviewed by the Wall Street Journal, Laurence Meyer, vice-chairman of the board at Macroeconomic Advisers, a US-based economic forecasting firm, said that "The worst-case scenario is that the Fed loses its ability to stimulate the economy further as the funds rate moves to zero."
His firm sees the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 7% next year; though he says it could go to 8% or even higher if credit markets don't improve.
Recent example of lost orders and impact of global crisis is showing itself in bankruptcies and on 16 October 2008 a town government in Guangdong Province has paid 24 million Yuan (US$3.51 million) in emergency living allowances to about 6,500 workers after the world's largest toy maker announced two factories of the town were bankrupt. The companies relied heavily on exports to the United States with 70 percent of all toys being sold to that market, the report said. Analysts said the bankruptcies were the result of the ongoing US credit crisis and that it was the first bankruptcy case on the Chinese mainland due to the global financial turmoil.
There was already a spreading of the crisis in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang about 50 % toy manufacturers of Small and Medium Size entrepreneur , textile manufacturers and other consumer goods have already gone bankrupt and the ratio is increasing day by day as the crisis deepens more and more . Chinese government is asserting that they collapsed due to lower efficiency in management and higher cost of production. But the appreciating Yuan has also affected the fortunes of these SMEs. The Chinese government has raised rebate of textile exports to 13 % to counter the affects of global crisis, appreciating Yuan and increased costs.
The trend of these closures and bankruptcies is going to be longer and protracted in days to come and government is also planning to develop new policies to tackle this crisis.
Real Estate Crisis.
The development boom in China in real estate developed huge projects and resulted in increase of prices of housing units across the major cities of China. As the economic slow down and increased inflationary pressure has set in. This has prompted the wave of housing price cuts appearing to have swept across major cities in China after the Olympics. Property developers in Shenzhen, Southern Guangdong province, were among the first to slash prices to boost the sluggish local real estate market. The move, however, triggered a domino effect across the country, with developers in Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai and other large cities following suit.
Shenzhen
In the first week of October, the daily-average price for houses traded in Shenzhen had tumbled below 10,000 Yuan per square meter, an important psychological barrier used to measure the decline of the market.
Traditionally, the period from September to late-October has been the high season for property markets. However, the annual Shenzhen autumn fair for real estate that opened on September 29 had dismaying results, according to participating developers.
Based on data released by the Shenzhen bureau of land resources and housing management on October 2, that day alone 64 units of new houses, measuring 5,222 square meters in total, were sold for 50.13 million Yuan.The above trading volume averaged out to 9,599 Yuan per square meter--the lowest daily-average price recorded in the City in 18 months.
According to the Bureau's latest market analysis report for the months from January to August, the real estate market had remained sluggish since June.The report said in August, the city recorded an average property price for housing units at 14,448 yuan per sq m, a drop of 16.7% compared to the average price ten months ago.
Hangzhou
Real Estate Developers in Hangzhou were also plagued by lower prices and trading volume. Since early-September 2008 , developer Vanke had taken the lead in offering discounts and others followed suit, with some offering cuts up to some 30%.
For example, by mid-September 2008 , prices for new properties in a township named Qianjiang New City lingered between 12,000 and 13,000 per square meter after discount--some 5,000 Yuan per square meter lower than properties in the surrounding neighborhoods.
Upon learning of the price slash, some eager buyers queued overnight to compete for limited units. Some crashed the developer's sales office to protest "old" home purchases, who had paid higher prices for similar units when the township was first launched. Protesters were holding banners and threatening to withdraw their purchases.
Some developers who had practiced double standards in offering same units for different prices had come under pressure, and some agreed to put forward a one-off cash compensation scheme. The wave of real estate discounts has also spread to nearby cities like Ningbo and Wenzhou.
Beijing
Beijing has also been hurt by gloomy market. Between September 29 and Oct 4, trading volume for housing units dropped 72% compared with the same period last year, according to data posted on the Beijing municipal real estate management website. During that week, 412 units were sold, or an average of 69 units per day.
Discounts were also being offered to boost sales. For instance, on September 25, a housing township named Flower City had offered a model of a two-bedroom apartment measuring some 100 square meters for 6,981 Yuan per square meter. The published price was more than double that, initially 15,000 Yuan per square meter.
According to a report posted on Beijing Statistical Information Bureau website, real estate market indications had showed signs of declining this year due to a combination of macro controls, especially in the third quarter of the year.The report stated that sales of housing units continued to be slow, but prices remained high.
Industry players believed the current slump in trading volume was temporary, as property prices had in past months rose too much beyond homebuyers' expectation. Moreover, uncertainties in the domestic and global economy had also put off investors
Shanghai
In Shanghai the real estate prices have gone down over 20-25 % and people are reluctant to buy newer properties and the Shanghai Municipality has already embarked on the reform and regulation of the sector by establishing a special Commission for the real estate sector.
In City Centre the prices have gone down and people are buying properties in outskirts and suburbs of Shanghai at rate of about 12000-15000 Yuan per square meter instead of buying over 20000 Yuan per square meter in the city centre.
Over all the lowering of prices in major cities of China shows the vulnerability and speculation involved in the real estate sector. Recent land reforms can further boost the real estate sector but its centre will not be big urban areas rather new emerging areas…this is the policy of Chinese authorities at the time. This will be more complex and more arduous development after the reforms of last 3 decades.
Conclusion:
The diversity and range of the crisis shows that it has affected broad areas of Chinese economy. This has not been more severe due to insularity of Chinese banking and Stock exchanges to foreign influences thus the panic situation has not been observed. But the symptoms and tentacles of crisis are visible every where from financial sector to SMESs. This global integration of Chinese market has posed challenge to Chinese market to restructure and readjust to present age of crisis.
China's tax revenue growth had slowed for two consecutive months in July and August, adding pressure to the drafting of 2009 budget, which would likely see expanded spending for stabilizing prices and rebuilding natural disaster-hit areas while state income slowing. Sources from the Finance Ministry told the Economic Observer weekly that all central government agencies had been asked to cut spending on civil servants' working trips, meetings and overseas study trips, among others, to attain zero growth in staff expenditure in next year's budget. This shows the practical results of impact of crisis on production of the country.
In the fallout of the US financial crisis, majority of market observers have projected Chinese exports would decline further as American consumers tightened their belts for leaner days; however, some also held that consumers under spending pressure would opt for cheap made-in-China products, thus limiting risk of a big drop in demand. In addition, China's huge foreign reserve in US dollar would depreciate in value. Chinese think tanks were against China in rushing in to buy ailing US financial institutions, instead, they suggested targeted acquisition on those with mining resources portfolio or extensive financial services network, adding such investment should be gearing for a seat in the board of director or some form of management control.
Recent shut down of the industries and manufacturing smaller units is seen as opportunity in the Government circles and they are hoping that this relocation will shift the low productive and less technological sophisticated concerns to hinterland of China thus paving way for the more technological developed manufacturing units to be developed in Pearl and Yangtze River Delta regions. If this policy is successfully implemented then the region can come stronger and developed as compared to before. But this will depend upon the trends and strengths of world economy, health of financial systems, domestic market and pace and direction of reforms. As the Chinese are themselves saying a long winter has set in the Chinese economy …and every one is eagerly waiting for spring but without any clue to its real colors!
Decoupling , the theory that Chinese economy is independent and is not dependant upon USA and EU market has been tested severely under the after math of the recent financial crisis in Global markets, especially financial and stock exchange markets. This shows that the world economy is truly global in scope practical implications. The impact of global crisis is explored in the context of financial, manufacturing and stock exchange of China.
"Decoupling holds that European and Asian economies, especially emerging ones, have broadened and deepened to the point that they no longer depend on the United States for growth, leaving them insulated from a severe slowdown there, even a fully fledged recession. Faith in the concept has generated strong outperformance for stocks outside the United States - until now." Reference International Herald Tribune
Financial investments abroad and Chinese losses
In China the impact of international financial crisis has been varied and it has not been open and clear due to lack of transparency and information gathering in China. In financial field China Investment Corp., the sovereign wealth fund that bought stakes in Morgan Stanley and Blackstone Group LP before their stocks plunged, may have as much as $5.4 billion frozen in a U.S. money-market account. Stable Investment Corp., an affiliate of Beijing-based CIC, was the largest shareholder in Reserve Primary Fund on Sept. 1, according to regulatory filings. Reserve Primary suspended withdrawals after becoming the first U.S. money- market fund in 14 years to leave investors with losses. Stable Investment had about $6 billion in additional U.S. money-market funds earlier this year. China, which has primarily held its $1.8 trillion in currency reserves in low-yielding U.S. government debt, set up CIC last year to put about $200 billion into assets with higher rates of return, such as stocks and corporate bonds. It invested $5 billion in Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. investment bank, and $3 billion in buyout firm Blackstone, manager of the largest leveraged buyout fund. Both New York-based companies have lost more than 70 percent of their market value since the purchases.
CIC devoted most of its money to domestic banks, and has about $35 billion remaining for global investments, according to McCormack at Z-Ben, which consults on China's money- management industry. The fund had placed $11 billion in U.S. money-market funds, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. It may be using the money funds to park cash until selecting outside money managers to help it invest, said Brad Setser, a fellow for geo-economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based think tank.``. It has taken them awhile to figure out what they want to invest in,'' Setser said. This shows the cautious policy adopted in aftermath of the financial crisis by Chinese authorities
Depending on its performance, CIC may be allocated as much as $1 trillion of China's foreign exchange reserves, according to Michael Martin, an Asian trade and finance analyst at the U.S. Congressional Research Service in Washington.
A Sept. 29 2008, SEC filing shows that Stable Investment held 11.1 percent of Reserve Primary's institutional shares at the beginning of the month. Based on the 48.9 billion institutional shares outstanding as of May 31, the most recent information available, Stable Investment's stake would have totaled about $5.4 billion.
Stable Investment has also invested roughly $5.9 billion in three other U.S. money market funds, according to documents filed earlier this year with the SEC. That includes $2.1 billion in the Invesco Aim Liquid Assets Portfolio; $2.3 billion in the JPMorgan Prime Money Market Fund; and $1.5 billion in Deutsche Asset Management's DWS Money Market Trust.
By Sept. 16 2008, the day after Lehman had filed for bankruptcy protection, investors had sought to withdraw $40 billion from the $62.5 billion Reserve Primary fund. Reserve Primary ended up releasing $10 billion at a rate of $1 a share. The last value published for the fund was 97 cents a share. Reserve Primary's loss triggered a widespread run in which investors withdrew $133 billion from U.S. money-market funds the following two days.
Reserve Primary is liquidating its assets and expects to make an initial distribution of $20 billion to remaining investors .The situation became clearer when China Investment Corp. (CIC), operator of the country's sovereign wealth fund, on 15 October 2008 said it had given notice to the Reserve Primary Fund, a U.S. money market fund, to withdraw all its investment before the latter's suspension announcement.
Bloomberg reported on 13 October 2008 ,that CIC may have as much as US$5.4 billion frozen as the Reserve Primary Fund suspended withdrawals last month. The Reserve Primary Fund suspended redemption last month because of losses on debt issued by bankrupted Lehman Brothers.A U.S. regulatory filing showed Stable Investment Corp. was the biggest institutional shareholder in the U.S. monetary market fund with a stake of potentially more than US$5 billion.
CIC confirmed its investment in the Primary Fund, but said it would not be subject to the possible 3 percent losses incurred by the Reserve Primary Fund. The fund announced investors who hadn't made a withdrawal before the redemption suspension may be subject to the 3 percent principal losses.
The Sovereign wealth fund, with capital of US$200 billion from the country's huge foreign exchange reserve, has attracted great attention at home as its two major investments in Blackstone and Morgan Stanley suffered losses during the ongoing financial crisis.
China Investment Corp., the government's sovereign wealth fund, may raise its stake in U.S. investment group Blackstone LP after the two agreed to boost the Chinese company's ownership limit.CIC had paid $3 billion for a stake in Blackstone's June 2007 initial public offering, but has seen the value of that investment sink in the bear market, to the consternation of many in China.
According to a regulatory filing, a revised agreement reached on 16 October 2008, between Blackstone and CIC unit Beijing Wonderful Investments Ltd. has raised the limit on the Chinese company's stake to 12.5 percent from 9.99 percent. The filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, posted on Blackstone's Web site, did not require regulatory approval.
There was no official comment from CIC on its plans for additional share purchases. At the time of Blackstone's IPO, its shares were valued at $31 apiece. On Thursday, they rose 1.7 percent to $9.36.The $200 billion investment arm of the Chinese government was set up to make profitable use of Beijing's foreign reserves, which totaled $1.9 trillion by the end of September 2008.
CIC's biggest investment to date was a $5 billion investment in Morgan Stanley, one of nine major banks now seeking relief from the deepening credit crisis through the U.S. government's $700 billion banking bailout. That purchase will give it a 9.9 percent stake in the investment bank.
The Chinese sovereign wealth fund also invested more than $100 million in Visa Inc.'s $19.1 billion IPO and has invested in a fund managed by J.C. Flowers, a U.S. private equity firm.
Stock , Commodities Market and Economic Crisis :
Shanghai Stock Exchange is the bench mark fro Main Land China and it has also been victim of the crisis in a drastic way. SSE has lost over 60 % of its value than its peak value a year ago and the slide has been steady and it has not been able to correct its balance after the global crisis. The SSE closed on 1833.26 points on 17 October 2008. This is at its historical lowest points.
China’s securities watchdog has warned listed state-owned enterprises against trading speculatively in the futures market as it acts to contain risks amid volatility in the global commodity markets. The SOEs can only use futures contracts as a hedging tool and must strictly control risks, China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in a Website statement . "China is highly reliant on imports of raw materials, but their prices are determined by overseas futures prices." However, the United States subprime crisis triggered volatility in futures prices and companies faced higher risks. So hedging in overseas futures market plays an important role in helping companies keep risks at bay and also helps them control costs while they aim to be profitable."The risks are manageable as long as we adhere to the principle of hedging," CSRC noted. Crude oil, copper, palm oil and rubber fell yesterday on concerns that sales will plummet.
The Chinese banking regulator on 16 October 2008 urged financial institutions to step up their supervision in face of world economic turmoil. The China Banking Regulatory Commission is requiring institutions in the banking industry to tighten up its credit management and avoid embezzlement of funds to the stock market. Control over property-related credit should be strengthened to encourage normal consumption, strike down on speculative activities and support the rational development of the real estate industry, said the commission. It also urged commercial banks to make better preparations for possible losses, asking them to increase provisions.
Manufacturing Sector … Economic Crisis and Relocation
The majority of China’s exports are destined to USA and EU market so the present crisis has played a dominant role in affecting the manufacturing base of the Chinese export dependant industries.
The toy market especially and new export orders have been affected at a broad spectrum of companies in China. Many big companies dealing in Christmas toys like Santa Claus' outsourcing operation is being affected by deepening US economic woes--US orders for Christmas products made by Chinese manufacturers have dropped off a cliff.
Roosevelt Gift Manufacturing Company in Xiamen, Fujian province is one of the three largest craft manufacturers in Xiamen, who mainly produces Christmas products for the America market."Nowadays, the business environment at home and abroad is poor. On the one hand, we have to face pressures from rising costs and Yuan appreciation; on the other hand, many orders have evaporated due to weaker US market demand," company’s representative Yuki said. She also said her company was searching for counter-measures. For instance, since later last year, the company had switched its target market to Europe out of concerns over its US partners' likeliness to breach contracts. But even the European market is unpredictable.
The firm even tried to squeeze costs by simplifying their products. "The US clients were more interested in lower prices, because expensive Christmas gifts may not be popular," Yuki said. She added the company had considered marketing domestically but was frustrated by thinner profit margins and complicated marketing channels.
Roosevelt is not an isolated company in this squeezing environment. Zhejiang province's Yiwu County, one of China's major Christmas product exporting bases, is also facing a colder market.
He Songping, president of Yiwu Zhong Sheng Crafts Company, which makes Christmas trees, told the EO that orders from the US have shrunk over 50%. Furthermore, since steel prices have jumped 30%, despite simplifications to product design his firm's products are still 15% more expensive.
The trend reaches beyond Christmas paraphernalia. Yiwu's export volume with the US registered negative growth for three consecutive months earlier this year. In April, local enterprises began to diversify their markets, and from May, Europe replaced the US to become Yiwu's largest exporting market.
A professional market consultant institute forecast a further decline in the trade against US and the US financial crisis would be bound to jeopardize its real economy. Under such condition, China had better diversify its exporting market like opening up new market in Middle-East, South Asia and Latin America areas.In America, consumers would often queue for shopping during the month-long golden shopping season that ran from Thanksgiving to Christmas Day. The season has traditionally contributed nearly half of total revenues and profits to US retailers. In the US, Christmas is not only a festival but also a huge economic cake.
However, Santa seemed likely to be less generous in year 2008. Owing to the bad economic situation last year, Christmas spending on the average child stood at around 200 dollar in the US. However, many families planned to halve that spending in year 2008 , because nobody wants to face a heap of credit card bills after the holidays. In addition, the unemployment rate in America is climbing and many people are living off of social welfare services."On September 23 2008, the US National Retail Federation forecasted weakness in the US retail business. The federation contributed the reason to the downturn in the real estate market, climbing unemployment and rising food prices.
When interviewed by the Wall Street Journal, Laurence Meyer, vice-chairman of the board at Macroeconomic Advisers, a US-based economic forecasting firm, said that "The worst-case scenario is that the Fed loses its ability to stimulate the economy further as the funds rate moves to zero."
His firm sees the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 7% next year; though he says it could go to 8% or even higher if credit markets don't improve.
Recent example of lost orders and impact of global crisis is showing itself in bankruptcies and on 16 October 2008 a town government in Guangdong Province has paid 24 million Yuan (US$3.51 million) in emergency living allowances to about 6,500 workers after the world's largest toy maker announced two factories of the town were bankrupt. The companies relied heavily on exports to the United States with 70 percent of all toys being sold to that market, the report said. Analysts said the bankruptcies were the result of the ongoing US credit crisis and that it was the first bankruptcy case on the Chinese mainland due to the global financial turmoil.
There was already a spreading of the crisis in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang about 50 % toy manufacturers of Small and Medium Size entrepreneur , textile manufacturers and other consumer goods have already gone bankrupt and the ratio is increasing day by day as the crisis deepens more and more . Chinese government is asserting that they collapsed due to lower efficiency in management and higher cost of production. But the appreciating Yuan has also affected the fortunes of these SMEs. The Chinese government has raised rebate of textile exports to 13 % to counter the affects of global crisis, appreciating Yuan and increased costs.
The trend of these closures and bankruptcies is going to be longer and protracted in days to come and government is also planning to develop new policies to tackle this crisis.
Real Estate Crisis.
The development boom in China in real estate developed huge projects and resulted in increase of prices of housing units across the major cities of China. As the economic slow down and increased inflationary pressure has set in. This has prompted the wave of housing price cuts appearing to have swept across major cities in China after the Olympics. Property developers in Shenzhen, Southern Guangdong province, were among the first to slash prices to boost the sluggish local real estate market. The move, however, triggered a domino effect across the country, with developers in Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai and other large cities following suit.
Shenzhen
In the first week of October, the daily-average price for houses traded in Shenzhen had tumbled below 10,000 Yuan per square meter, an important psychological barrier used to measure the decline of the market.
Traditionally, the period from September to late-October has been the high season for property markets. However, the annual Shenzhen autumn fair for real estate that opened on September 29 had dismaying results, according to participating developers.
Based on data released by the Shenzhen bureau of land resources and housing management on October 2, that day alone 64 units of new houses, measuring 5,222 square meters in total, were sold for 50.13 million Yuan.The above trading volume averaged out to 9,599 Yuan per square meter--the lowest daily-average price recorded in the City in 18 months.
According to the Bureau's latest market analysis report for the months from January to August, the real estate market had remained sluggish since June.The report said in August, the city recorded an average property price for housing units at 14,448 yuan per sq m, a drop of 16.7% compared to the average price ten months ago.
Hangzhou
Real Estate Developers in Hangzhou were also plagued by lower prices and trading volume. Since early-September 2008 , developer Vanke had taken the lead in offering discounts and others followed suit, with some offering cuts up to some 30%.
For example, by mid-September 2008 , prices for new properties in a township named Qianjiang New City lingered between 12,000 and 13,000 per square meter after discount--some 5,000 Yuan per square meter lower than properties in the surrounding neighborhoods.
Upon learning of the price slash, some eager buyers queued overnight to compete for limited units. Some crashed the developer's sales office to protest "old" home purchases, who had paid higher prices for similar units when the township was first launched. Protesters were holding banners and threatening to withdraw their purchases.
Some developers who had practiced double standards in offering same units for different prices had come under pressure, and some agreed to put forward a one-off cash compensation scheme. The wave of real estate discounts has also spread to nearby cities like Ningbo and Wenzhou.
Beijing
Beijing has also been hurt by gloomy market. Between September 29 and Oct 4, trading volume for housing units dropped 72% compared with the same period last year, according to data posted on the Beijing municipal real estate management website. During that week, 412 units were sold, or an average of 69 units per day.
Discounts were also being offered to boost sales. For instance, on September 25, a housing township named Flower City had offered a model of a two-bedroom apartment measuring some 100 square meters for 6,981 Yuan per square meter. The published price was more than double that, initially 15,000 Yuan per square meter.
According to a report posted on Beijing Statistical Information Bureau website, real estate market indications had showed signs of declining this year due to a combination of macro controls, especially in the third quarter of the year.The report stated that sales of housing units continued to be slow, but prices remained high.
Industry players believed the current slump in trading volume was temporary, as property prices had in past months rose too much beyond homebuyers' expectation. Moreover, uncertainties in the domestic and global economy had also put off investors
Shanghai
In Shanghai the real estate prices have gone down over 20-25 % and people are reluctant to buy newer properties and the Shanghai Municipality has already embarked on the reform and regulation of the sector by establishing a special Commission for the real estate sector.
In City Centre the prices have gone down and people are buying properties in outskirts and suburbs of Shanghai at rate of about 12000-15000 Yuan per square meter instead of buying over 20000 Yuan per square meter in the city centre.
Over all the lowering of prices in major cities of China shows the vulnerability and speculation involved in the real estate sector. Recent land reforms can further boost the real estate sector but its centre will not be big urban areas rather new emerging areas…this is the policy of Chinese authorities at the time. This will be more complex and more arduous development after the reforms of last 3 decades.
Conclusion:
The diversity and range of the crisis shows that it has affected broad areas of Chinese economy. This has not been more severe due to insularity of Chinese banking and Stock exchanges to foreign influences thus the panic situation has not been observed. But the symptoms and tentacles of crisis are visible every where from financial sector to SMESs. This global integration of Chinese market has posed challenge to Chinese market to restructure and readjust to present age of crisis.
China's tax revenue growth had slowed for two consecutive months in July and August, adding pressure to the drafting of 2009 budget, which would likely see expanded spending for stabilizing prices and rebuilding natural disaster-hit areas while state income slowing. Sources from the Finance Ministry told the Economic Observer weekly that all central government agencies had been asked to cut spending on civil servants' working trips, meetings and overseas study trips, among others, to attain zero growth in staff expenditure in next year's budget. This shows the practical results of impact of crisis on production of the country.
In the fallout of the US financial crisis, majority of market observers have projected Chinese exports would decline further as American consumers tightened their belts for leaner days; however, some also held that consumers under spending pressure would opt for cheap made-in-China products, thus limiting risk of a big drop in demand. In addition, China's huge foreign reserve in US dollar would depreciate in value. Chinese think tanks were against China in rushing in to buy ailing US financial institutions, instead, they suggested targeted acquisition on those with mining resources portfolio or extensive financial services network, adding such investment should be gearing for a seat in the board of director or some form of management control.
Recent shut down of the industries and manufacturing smaller units is seen as opportunity in the Government circles and they are hoping that this relocation will shift the low productive and less technological sophisticated concerns to hinterland of China thus paving way for the more technological developed manufacturing units to be developed in Pearl and Yangtze River Delta regions. If this policy is successfully implemented then the region can come stronger and developed as compared to before. But this will depend upon the trends and strengths of world economy, health of financial systems, domestic market and pace and direction of reforms. As the Chinese are themselves saying a long winter has set in the Chinese economy …and every one is eagerly waiting for spring but without any clue to its real colors!
Friday, October 17, 2008
Imaigination and Time
We imagine about time or we imagine within time? How the imagination is affected by our immediate context and environment and our futuristic goals and plans.
Is imagination free to roam like clouds in an open sky or it has its limits ?
these facts we can not deny or accept in their totality and also in its different impressions. they keep on changing the shades of our lives.
Is imagination free to roam like clouds in an open sky or it has its limits ?
these facts we can not deny or accept in their totality and also in its different impressions. they keep on changing the shades of our lives.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
The flow of past!
The memories of past are flowing and flashing on the river of my heart’s landscape, an eternal field of blossoming tulips, unfinished dreams and yet to be disclosed secrets of yore!My self is in the grip of some mystical energy which energizes and galvanizes the aroma of past under the halo of hope, nostalgia and loss----- a loss of association, a loss of attachment and a loss of unison! The pendulum of ideas vacillates from one extreme to another extreme and pangs of separation just squeeze me deeper into realm of past, which has lost relationship with my present. The detachment of physical distances is pinching my heart to ask where have those moments of personal assimilation in my heart have gone!The memory flash is unstoppable like the crazy rain in the thundering nights and dark days. The flow of dreams and realities seems blurred and the flowers of memory seem to be withered down for ever!I can not dare to pick the threads of past to go deep back into my self where trees, birds, water and open and clear sky sings songs of ecstasy, where the desert nights display the showering moon light bathing the scorched sandy dunes , the dunes like raised and majestic breasts of a woman , waiting to be suckled by thirst and scorched lips of destiny!The inner spring of sadness mingle sin the present uncertainties and produces another world devoid of trees, birds, and clear sky and dark clouds , but telling me the darkness of soul and this itching and desirous body!The bliss of roaming in the shade of clouds under the guard of sky has been taken over by shade of concrete buildings, pollution of air and wealth choking my dreams to fly higher and higher, beyond the limited scenes of this earthly world, oh what destiny bestows on us! Now I have no cycle, although I have money, when ever I want to talk about cycle my wife says we have car why you need car, it is waste of money! The old bicycle also was not mine my father’s but I had freedom to use it whenever. I had also to face scolding of my father using it too much! But now I am scolded even before I can ride over the bicycle…. How the times change!The memories of colors, water, sun, rain, trees, birds, fields, flowers, rivers, deserts, and mountains draw me to themselves with an understanding and friendliness which seems to be lost in the chores of life… the running life, the new life! Now there are no fears of devils, the fears are of what will happen? When will happen? How it will happen? And I never know what is; that happening for which I yearn too much …The glimpses of past associated with my ramblings and tête-à-tête with beauty are like insurmountable mountains which is completely covered under the centuries old snow ,which is not ready to melt, but to spread like wildfire, with a fire of coldness which numbs the senses and overpowers the heat of life!These are moments of grief… I don’t think so. Are these moments of joy….certainly they are, but why heart aches and pains with an intensity unknown to it other than of love and desire for the beloved! The pangs of desire ravage like boulders speeding down from mountains which destroy all the things come in its way trees, flowers, houses and hustling bustling cities some times when they develop into avalanches , the destiny of living under the feet of mighty mountains. I flow, I stop I, stagnate, I die, I live, I dream, I hate, I stumble, I sin, I deceive, I cry, I laugh, I am life and I flow like a river on flood destroying, plundering the banks, overflowing the bonds of discipline, of commune and of unknown passions of greed, lust, depression disguised under the chains of naked hunger flowing from mind to fiery body!The streams have overtaken the plains they are not bound by any bonding they mere want to flow and flow like undeterred power of flowing lava in the volcanoes of heart waiting to burst on any opportunity and idea!The lava overtakes me, the distant pleasures consume me, and the ashes of volcanoes taunt me for the destiny of my inability to command the raptures of desire. I am in a jungle of wild animals where the hopes are shattered and dreams are fulfilled in a moment or never ever to come true! Perpetual wait is the destiny, waiting for the illusory Messiahs to come and liberate the already liberated soul from elf imposed limitations of imagination and inaction and sloth imposed by too much of want!The streams of ideas connect, synchronize; disconnect, destroy the overflow of hopes and dreams and charge the horse of need to march again and pounce upon the fruits of eternal beauty and charm devoid of any certainty like he promise of beloved!I could never decipher the hidden meanings of symbols which have surrounded me since times immemorial in a constant permutations and combinations; emerging, vanishing, re-emerging and pouncing upon me in another vein of snare of self affliction. I am with me always wanting more and more, fighting with all of the desires and quenching the insatiable thirst of inner self lost in the illusions of present, loosing sense and direction of past and future! Which future? Which past? , time is eternally flowing continuously from nothing to unknown; the creator directs the time to unleash and unfold the memories of a continuity marred by our limitations and narrow visions. Visions of others, visions of power, fears of destruction, dreams of annihilation, desires of eternity, desires of indifference, ever increasing quench of soul to tread on the path of Eternity through means of inadequate understanding and vision, disembarking at the time when has to gallop, to run when one has to stop ……… a myriad of decisions, devoid of essence, pregnant with possibilities, but never came into existence …. The freedom of action bound with chains of hidden options beyond our hopes and leaps of imagination. We look to create a new world but end in another world of past, alas we the prisoners of past , not looking towards future and the broad horizons awaiting for our steps to embark upon a journey of certainty and eternity !We sell our times at the cost of few crumbs of bread and few moments of induced and agonizing frenzy…… called happiness. We the chained ones, we the steps on ocean shore for a moment and then juxtapose ourselves on the hazy screen of world in the vain hope of attaining eternity. We hope to reap rains in the deserts of solitude and strive to create gardens in the barren coasts of unending oceans of meaninglessness and absurdity imposed on our minds by flowery words of art, liberty and enlightenment. We die for those who never hoped for our lives and deaths……the souls of ghettoes by self choice. The darkness of nights fails to lighten our days and the heaps of work fail to deliver the eternity and bliss in our periodically shining eyes. We burn and burn on the altar of desires heaving heavily to get Nirvana, we never know our every sacrifice takes us away from the promised eternity, reason the pride of sacrifice blurs our vision to be friend.My prayers are starved of essence they are mere words repeated from centuries by barren lands in the deserts of rituals. My prayers are for the enhancement of afflictions of affluence and strengthening the shadows of disbelief and unbridled passions of hatred on the name of religion… the sciences of present don’t heal they create tirelessly to distribute life in the garb of liberation to hopes of future … our children. My leaders are wishes of devil , my needs are death of contentment, my fears are fruits of disbelief, my hopes are limitations of my imagination, my efforts are results of my inaction , my decisions are inherently indecisive my visions are visions of visionless stones , my life is life of silence . Oh Allah grant me vision and hope to be your friend not another salve in the long line of zombies!
Thoughts of Pain and Hope
They kill me in bazaars
They kill me on gallows
They target me with fireThey again and again hunt me
They bleed my soul
They bleed me
They just kill me
I am Pakistan
I am soul of Indus
I am voice of Thar!
Marvi is no more
Let her rest in peace!
May her departure can awaken love
Can breed peace and prosperity!
Dreams have no limits!
Like oceans and infinite horizons!
They kill me on gallows
They target me with fireThey again and again hunt me
They bleed my soul
They bleed me
They just kill me
I am Pakistan
I am soul of Indus
I am voice of Thar!
Marvi is no more
Let her rest in peace!
May her departure can awaken love
Can breed peace and prosperity!
Dreams have no limits!
Like oceans and infinite horizons!
Ocean of Knowledge
The human beings are the most evolved and highly developed organism in this universe as per our present knowledge. There are over 20 Million living organisms in this universe and human beings are the organisms who can speak and the most important ... can think! This thinking ability is the difference which makes human beings unique and able to create knowledge ... the difference of utmost importance between animals and human beings!Knowledge is the source of Hazrat Adam (Peace Be Upon HIm ) the first human being was given preference over angels and Satan as he was bestowed by Allah ability to name the things , the bases of knowledge . But knowledge has many dimensions and its essence is knowing things in depth and with understanding. If the things are understood only superficially then our understanding is at fault and incomplete. Take an example if a person is having difficult in breathing if a person of less medical knowledge says he may guess and say it is asthma, it is allergy and may be it is only tiredness. And we can well imagine the consequences if the improper diagnosis is made and wrong medicine is given to the patient, it can result in death of the person or some dangerous side effect on the health of a person.Take an example of rockets and their flight operation, if at their launching time their trajectory is disturbed by one degree only, then it will be not on destined star about thousands of miles away from its target. This will result from less knowledge and destroy lot of efforts and money. Knowledge means to know things in their true shapes and true realities , and there is a saying of Holy Prophet Peace Be upon HIm that Oh Allah grant me true knowledge of things and show their essence not as they are seen in appearance! This shows that knowledge is in its totality and not in its parts and a little knowledge is a dangerous thing which amkes things blurred.I will tell you a story mentioned by Rumi; he says that there were three persons who went to see an elephant being shown to people by a King. the elephant was placed in a ark and big room chained with iron bars. One person went he felt his trunk , he thought it was like a python, other went he touched his feet and he thought it was like a tall and strong tree , the third went and he brushed his ear and thought it was like a big fan! After three came out and discussed about elephant 's shape all disagreed and began to fight and due to their limited and little knowledge stuck to their point of view. Rumi says if they had taken a lamp and seen in its clear light that elephant was made up of all the parts and then true and whole knowledge of elephant's shape would have given them clarity as to elephant's shape! But they fought due to their little knowledge, our today's many issues arise from this little knowledge about science, religion, and our society and ourselves . This chaos is motivated by masters of little knowledge and of narrow ideas. To live in peace we need to move from little knowledge to whole knowledge and truth ,nothing else but whole truth. As knowledge liberates us from ignorance, hatred, violence and poverty. Let us promise that we will strive in our lives to move from little knowledge to whole truth and save ourselves and others from its dangers!Knowledge makes us human beings, but it has no limit, it is always learning and discovering new frontiers and horizons , and let us strive for a future not based upon dangers of little knowledge but upon confidence and stability of whole truth and deep knowledge.
Why the stars are born?
The life’s surprises never finish, we think that the life has stabilized and we have all the stable ingredients of life making us move forward in a consistent and stable way.But some events come from no where and change the ideas in a drastic and concrete way, after their occurrence shows us that there is no stability mere an interval waiting to be turned around for good.Such has happened with me in recent past after knowing an unseen, never heard fiend on the virtual world. This is one of the most potent intellectual, spiritual and physically shaking experience till now for me. The words are inadequate, less forceful, less imaginative and perhaps poor to express the situation in which I am placed after this transformation of complexities and simplicities. The depth of this experience seems unfathomable and infinite in its scope and diversity. This has created new worlds, new imaginations and new limitations in my intellectual and spiritual world and the most potent one in my physical sense, whose direction and depth is increasing day by day and which torments my soul and body at every moment of existence.For me it is impossible to think and imagine the worldly reality without physicality, because it is the reference point which helps us to understand the perils and boundaries of material world and establishes an active contact and relationship with the material world and blesses us with the supreme sentiments and emotions of love… the ultimate combination of spirituality and physicality imbibed and synchronized in the intimate feelings and moments of annihilation.The stardust from which we are made is the essence of universe and we are the only known creation which can feel the pangs and blessings o f love and rational synergy at the spiritual and physical level. But how can we divorce the spiritual and physical realities of our lives and the love which creates, kills and creates and this process keeps on renewing and discovering the deeply hidden treasures of ourselves and the universe around us. It seems mere death is my destiny till now… I desire to be created and reinvigorated, but how can the single soul embark upon this journey of unknown? I have no answer…..May be my friend has! Dear ,I can say the candle burns and burns and the perwanas keeps on burning , he burns, annihilates and ……………. Have all questions and answers been waiting for me only?
Woman!
O woman
On the beautiful roads of sky
You are a galaxy
Where the lights show the beauty overflowing
O womanWhere the coldness and hotness are fudged
O woman let me eat the fudge!
On the beautiful roads of sky
You are a galaxy
Where the lights show the beauty overflowing
O womanWhere the coldness and hotness are fudged
O woman let me eat the fudge!
China in future Global Order
Recent surge and development of China has developed a debate centered around rise of East and Pacific Ocean . Leading the world world in 21st century and already 21st Century is being called century of China. In history rise of a new power in world affair is usually associated with conflict and violence. This fear adopts increased proportions when we see it that this time the world powers are riding over power of globalization and information technology instead of mere human resources!China asserts that its rise is peaceful rise and its development is for peace and stability 0of world. As the economic and military power of China rises, USA considers it her major future rival and a country which can challenge and take over USA; there are studies that at 5 times less productivity as to USA in 2020 China can take over USA due to her population.Henry Kissinger visited China in 2007 and first time raised point of rivalry due to change in balance of power. But many experts also assert that due to nuclear weapons old traditional methods of military superiority and its active use are not means to affect change. This reality has been changed by the complex, multilateral and liberal free market economy international order of world. This is expressed by United Nations, Breton Woods Financial Institutions, world Trade Organization and relentless pace and currency of Globalization and information technology revolution.These institutions and free market economy are spearheaded by USA and European values and its historical experiences. Thus in recent Foreign Affairs Magazine there is special portion dedicated to China and in this question of future of Chinese superiority over USA in long term is asserted but it is considered that China will not be able to replace the present international order in its favor drastically and radically. As China is itself beneficiary of this International Order, examples being its economic turnaround si all due to Globalization and joining the international, multilateral systems and also China itself accepts the fact of increase in its prestige after joining WTO.USA should keep on China engaged, integrated and curtailed within the present multilateral international liberal market economy order, and this will favor and support USA. G.John Ikenberry in his article “The Rise of China and the future of the West… Can the Liberal System Survive?” in latest issue of Foreign Affairs Magazine January/February 2008 concludes that “The task now is to make so expensive and so institutionalized that China has no choice but to become a full-fledged member of it. The United States cannot thwart China’s rise, but it can help ensure that China’s power si exercised within the rules and institutions that the United States and its partners have crafted over the last century, rules and institutions that can protect the interests of all states in the more crowded world of the future. The United States’ global position may be weakening, but the international system the United States leads can remain the dominant order of the twenty –first century.”This is the crux of realist school of thought based upon idealistic visions of world order.If behavior of China is seen in last decade then it becomes clear that China is rapidly becoming part of this global international liberal system. Its examples are china’s active support to resolve North Korea Crisis under the ambit of six -party talks, active role in UN peace keeping operations. Increased participation in Security Council related matters in UN( Iraq Issue, Iran Nuclear Issue, Darfur Issue , environmental Issue are case in point)and recently her active and increased participation in war against Global Terrorism. These all are indicators of active involvement and participation of China in liberal system but its limitations are also visible where China’s national interests clash for example Taiwan issue ( recent Taiwanese interest in independence through UN) Tibet and her relationships with states not practicing democracy and also Human Right issues. This process of engagement and integration of China in world order is gradually moving and as per assertions of Chinese they have no plan and desire to counter the international system as this will prove counterproductive to their interests.China’s entry into global arena is under the framework of existing legal .multilateral, consensual and liberal systems of institutions developed by Western powers in 20th century and as main factors of Chinese development are exports and FDI, this anchors China to present system and binds her future with stability of the present system based on International Law which seems to be contrary to present policy of USA’s unilateral pursuance in world affairs since last 8 years. In future global stability and peace hinges upon peaceful integration of China in world liberal systems, and USA’s resolve to strengthen the present institutions. But this will depend upon the changes in US Presidency this year as it will change course of policies of USA administration towards international liberal system and will also affect the USA –China relations ranging from trade friction to military issues.If China’s position is seen in this backdrop of international liberal system then except China’s internal touchy issues China has managed to adjust and adopt its policies to ethos of liberal system in its own way based upon active diplomacy and flexibility and resolve to search middle path… this has been shown in Six Party talks, Darfur Issue, Iran Nuclear Issue and terrorism issues. China has been very active in environmental regime to develop national policy in year 2006 to counter the bad press and environmental impact at home at least at policy level. Although ground realities are not as promising as they should be, but China’s resolve to adjust its legal structure and framework has been impressive. So at policy level in short and middle term China will not challenge its course of integration into world liberal system , but its response to USA security threat after war against Terrorism is finished will not be of accommodation and restraint due to increased economic power and its domestic nationalism and insistence on Chinese characteristics. These tenors of Chinese thinking are visible in development of regional alliances and active diplomacy in Africa , Latin America and Asia. China’s role and increasing sophisticated development of SCO and ASEAN mechanism is an indication in this regard. Recent cyber attacks in year 2007 originating from mainland China on computer systems of Europe and USA are indication of increasing muscle of China.China’s place in international liberal system will be determined by various multiple factors of USA behavior and its attitude and stress on War Against Terrorism and policy of new administration on economic issues with China. China will also be affected by rise of India at global scene and China is poised already to contain the role of India in region. .This is shown by China’s active role in regional trade, economic, military and defense relations with its neighbors like Pakistan. Myanmar, Vietnam, Koreas, Russia, other South East countries and her increased role in Central Asia. This historical rivalry with India can also color China’s perceptions of USA as Chinese already think that USA is not happy with their rise. This can play a major underlying role in future options for China in global affairs.China’s place in liberal system will not be governed by response of USA alone it will also be shaped up by its own choices in response to its increasing power and clout gathered by her not due to any historical legacy or cultural extension but mainly due to her rising economic power coupled with military power which at least in next 50 years will not be more advance than USA and European technology at least at theoretical and research level.Success of liberal system will depend on USA‘s resolve to protect 20th century institutions and shun its unilateral behavior and successful integration of China in this reinvigorated and revitalized systems. China has not come up with any alternative right now , rather she is pursuing to be active part of global institutions like WTO, UN, G-8, IMF, World Bank and other rising regional organizations like SCO, ADB etc. China will certainly change the practical expression of liberal system, but she will not be re writing the bases of those institutions, it will go for first claiming her rightful place in the system and then gradually it will integrate in the international system as an active player due to her size but it will not embark on a drastic effort to re- draw the maps or structures of institutions… it will aim for reform not for revolution. If it opts for revolution, then it will be a disaster of Chinese history of early 20th century repeated at global scale as now China will not shake itself… the dragon will shake the world! The sheer size of this Chinese revolution will be of utmost importance for its neighbors and they will be its immediate recipients as west will feel its indirect shocks especially in economic field. This course will be tumultuous due to internal cultural uniqueness and its inherent inability to excel in newer and innovative ideas at daily life and spiritual and philosophical level also. As the previous revolutions were initiated by Chinese but with foreign ideas of Democracy and Marxism and later adjusted to Chinese characteristics as present market system in china is called Socialist market with Chinese characteristics. This adherence restricts the scope of adoption of idea and it has inherent germs of imperialistic tendencies if taken to its extreme as it happened in case of Japan. In middle term behavior of China towards its place in world system will concern its neighbors in far reaching ways its land neighbors and sea neighbors will be affected in different ways. Regional and global affairs of China will be affected with China’s energy needs as this raw material has become of strategic importance for China and she has already understood its gravity as it is planning to open a new Ministry solely dealing with strategic and practical aspects of energy in its economic and strategic development. This will strategically place China at odds with rising environmental concerns at global level despite China’s readiness to adopt more efficient and sustainable models of energy resources.Liberal system of world will also affect China’s internal political system as increased integration of Chinese system with global liberal institutions running on rule of law and democratic aspiration will impact China also. This impact will be crucial factor in determining the gradual integration of China in world society as till now China has kept its own rules and regulations especially in fields of human rights and political affairs. This is a contradiction as in economic and trade matters China has adjusted rather rapidly and surprisingly without any major demur at domestic front. This inherent contradiction will place pressures on role of China if she adapts to the increased active role in liberal system of world affairs
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Food!
Allah has a lot of blessings for us and food is one of them, and our ability to enjoy good food is the best blessings of Allah.May Allah bless us to keep on enjoying his bounties! Ameen
Friday, October 10, 2008
Desires
In jungle of desires I am lost . or perhaps myself stationing to the ever changing landscape of desires. But reality is I am under grip of desires overshadowing and overtaking me in a frenzy sustained by routine of life.
Routine makes the realities of life seem different and perhaps distorted and awkward, a life of so-called pragmatism but devoid of any essence of dreams or ideals... so is present stage of life.
But when seen from the perspective of evolution of thoughts then I realize that this is not a stale moment of life but it is gradually moving towards its inherent goals, what are those goals? Power accumulation? Wealth ? Altruism? Knowledge of Creator and freedom to dream and resolve to change the realities of personal and other's lives. Yes the last is the hops and may be destination, albeit seeming far away right now!
Routine makes the realities of life seem different and perhaps distorted and awkward, a life of so-called pragmatism but devoid of any essence of dreams or ideals... so is present stage of life.
But when seen from the perspective of evolution of thoughts then I realize that this is not a stale moment of life but it is gradually moving towards its inherent goals, what are those goals? Power accumulation? Wealth ? Altruism? Knowledge of Creator and freedom to dream and resolve to change the realities of personal and other's lives. Yes the last is the hops and may be destination, albeit seeming far away right now!
Friday, October 3, 2008
Loneliness
Some times the crouching tiger like moments of strangeness and loneliness mere pounce upon our senses and they just take on the realities of life and the life seems lonely,alone and in search of intimacy!
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